Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
